Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest refinery and one of the continent’s biggest private-sector industrial projects, plans a NGN 2.15 trillion ($1.62 billion) IPO to finance only about 11% of its planned $14.27 billion expansion. The remaining funding is expected to come from internal cash flows, debt, trade finance and project financing. The African Development Bank also mobilised capital at scale, launching a $5.1 billion response for countries affected by energy and fertiliser shocks.

South Africa’s economy contracted for the first time in seven quarters, while Ghana’s inflation edged up and Nigeria’s reserves reached an 18-year high. Bank-level indicators were more resilient. Standard Bank reported stronger deposits and payment flows, Kenya’s NPL ratio fell and two new risk-sharing programmes targeted agricultural lending.

Read more on the week’s key developments:

1. Dangote Refinery sets NGN 2.15 trillion IPO to fund expansion

Dangote Petroleum Refinery issued a prospectus on 7 September for an initial public offering of up to 4.1 billion shares at NGN 525 each, targeting gross proceeds of NGN 2.15 trillion ($1.62 billion). The offer will open on 14 September and close on 13 October, with an application submitted to list the shares on the Nigerian Exchange’s Main Board. After estimated expenses, net proceeds of NGN 2.11 trillion ($1.59 billion) will finance part of the refinery’s expansion programme.

The programme aims to increase refining capacity from 700,000 barrels per day to approximately 1.4 million and polypropylene capacity from 830,000 tonnes to 2.4 million tonnes annually. Its estimated cost of $14.27 billion extends well beyond the IPO proceeds, with the balance expected to come from internal cash flows, debt, trade finance and project financing. The refinery reported $13.91 billion in revenue and $1.82 billion in profit for the first half of 2026, compared with a $282 million loss in the first half of 2025.

2. AfDB launches up to $5.1 billion response to energy and fertiliser shocks

The African Development Bank Group announced on 7 September a Global Energy and Fertilizer Crisis Response Framework of up to $5.1 billion. Approved by its board on 1 September, the one-year framework comprises an additional $4.1 billion in African Development Bank lending and up to $960 million from the African Development Fund. The resources raise the group’s 2026 lending target to approximately $12.7 billion.

The framework will provide counter-cyclical and trade financing while supporting food, energy and fertiliser supplies and protecting essential public spending. Its immediate focus is cushioning countries against higher import and financing costs. Directing part of the funding toward domestic production and more resilient supply chains would also reduce exposure to future energy and fertiliser disruptions.

3. South African economy contracts 0.2% in second quarter

Statistics South Africa reported on 8 September that real gross domestic product contracted 0.2% quarter on quarter in the second quarter, ending six consecutive quarters of growth. Mining declined 3%, trade contracted 1.9% and manufacturing recorded its third consecutive quarterly decrease. Imports rose 4.9%, while gross fixed capital formation declined for a second consecutive quarter.

The contraction shows that improving household consumption, construction and parts of the services economy were insufficient to offset weakness in production and investment. Private businesses and public corporations reduced capital formation, while manufacturing accumulated inventories despite lower output. The figures add pressure on policymakers ahead of the South African Reserve Bank’s 23 September monetary policy meeting.

4. Old Mutual approves ZAR 1 billion buyback as adjusted earnings decline

Old Mutual approved a ZAR 1 billion ($62.5 million) share buyback and raised its interim dividend by 8% to ZAR 0.40 ($0.03) per share. Results from operations increased 7% to ZAR 5.28 billion ($330 million), while life sales and gross flows both rose 21%. The value of new business increased 32%, supported by stronger sales and a more profitable product mix.

Adjusted headline earnings fell 30% to ZAR 2.95 billion ($184 million), mainly because of weaker returns on the shareholder investment portfolio. Old Mutual Bank reached 742,000 customers and ZAR 1.4 billion ($87.5 million) in retail deposits, although continued investment in the bank reduced group earnings. The group is targeting profitability for the banking operation by 2028.

5. Ghana’s inflation rises to 5% as domestic price pressures increase

Ghana’s annual inflation rose to 5% in August from 4.6% in July, driven by non-food and service prices. Non-food inflation reached 6.8% and accounted for about 71% of overall inflation, while food inflation eased to 3%. Inflation for locally produced items was 6.1%, compared with 2.2% for imports. Consumer prices nevertheless fell 1% month on month.

Housing, energy and transport were among the main sources of pressure. This is relevant to the Bank of Ghana’s earlier warnings about oil prices, transport costs and possible utility-tariff increases. However, headline inflation remains below its 6%–10% target band and the bank expects it to rise gradually into that range. The figures leave policymakers balancing below-target inflation against emerging domestic price pressures ahead of the 24 September decision.

6. Nigeria’s foreign reserves reach $54.08 billion

Nigeria’s gross foreign reserves increased to $54.08 billion on 3 September, their highest level in 18 years, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s 30-day moving-average series. The increase gives the central bank a larger buffer against external financing and import pressures as it continues to manage liquidity in the foreign-exchange market.

The accumulation supports confidence in the naira and improves Nigeria’s ability to meet external obligations during a period of elevated energy-market volatility. However, continued currency stability will also depend on the durability of portfolio and export inflows and the central bank’s approach to supplying foreign currency. The Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to meet on 21 and 22 September.

7. Standard Bank reports stronger deposits and African payment flows

Standard Bank reported on 7 September that deposits had increased 12% to ZAR 2.5 trillion ($156 billion), while loans and advances grew 7%. The value of domestic electronic payments rose 11% and cross-border payment values increased 7%. The group serves 19.5 million active clients across 21 African countries and reported a 19% share of cross-border payments across its African markets.

Deposit growth exceeding loan growth strengthens the group’s funding base while leaving more liquidity available for future credit expansion. Higher domestic and cross-border payment values also increase the importance of transaction services within the franchise. The commercial effect will depend on how effectively the bank converts these balances and payment flows into lending and fee income.

8. Kenya’s banking NPL ratio falls to 14.8% as lending expands

The Central Bank of Kenya released its Credit Officer Survey for the quarter ended June 2026 on 2 September. Gross banking-sector loans increased 4.3% during the quarter to KES 4.65 trillion ($35.9 billion), while deposits rose 2.4% to KES 6.67 trillion ($51.5 billion). Total assets increased 1.7% to KES 8.88 trillion ($68.6 billion). The gross non-performing loan ratio improved to 14.8% from 15.6% in March.

The decline occurred alongside an expansion in lending, making it more encouraging than an improvement produced through credit contraction alone. Nevertheless, almost 15% of loans remain non-performing. Further improvement will require banks to reduce impaired exposures while maintaining healthier credit growth.

9. IFAD and Equity activate $200 million climate-finance mechanism

The International Fund for Agricultural Development and Equity Group launched the $200 million Africa Rural Climate Adaptation Finance Mechanism on 4 September. The 12-year programme covers Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda and comprises $180 million of lending capital and approximately $20 million of technical assistance. Equity is providing $90 million from its balance sheet, matching $90 million of concessional capital.

The mechanism aims to reach approximately 260,000 smallholder producers and 500 rural enterprises and could generate around $266 million in loans as capital revolves through several investment cycles. Equity retains senior credit risk while concessional funding absorbs part of the risk associated with underserved agricultural borrowers. This gives the programme a stronger commercial banking component than development-finance facilities funded entirely by external capital.

10. Bank of Kigali and IFAD mobilise $21 million for agricultural finance

The International Fund for Agricultural Development, Bank of Kigali and Aceli Africa announced on 4 September a financing programme for farmers’ organisations and smallholders in Rwanda. The programme mobilises $21 million, comprising $12 million from IFAD and $9 million in co-financing from Bank of Kigali. It is expected to strengthen approximately 215 farmers’ organisations, provide financing to around 172 of them and benefit more than 35,000 smallholders.

IFAD’s package includes a $9 million loan, a $1.8 million risk-sharing grant and $1.2 million in technical assistance. Combining risk protection with Bank of Kigali’s commercial capital is intended to address weak collateral, limited financial records and governance constraints that have restricted agricultural lending. Repayment performance and subsequent lending by the bank will show whether the programme establishes a durable borrower segment.

What to watch

The Central Bank of Nigeria Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 21–22 September, the South African Reserve Bank decision on 23 September, the Bank of Ghana decision on 24 September and the Central Bank of Egypt meeting on 24 September.