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Paraguay repays Ueno depositors, UniCredit lifts capital ahead of Commerzbank deal

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Paraguay repays Ueno depositors, UniCredit lifts capital ahead of Commerzbank deal
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Risk and Capital Weekly Brief: Paraguay reimbursed Ueno Bank depositors after its collapse, NAB’s credit impairment charges rose 86% and Macquarie faced an additional $68.7 million capital overlay, while UniCredit strengthened its capital position ahead of the Commerzbank deal.

Paraguay reimbursed nearly 1.2 million Ueno Bank depositors following the lender’s collapse, while National Australia Bank (NAB) reported an 86% increase in credit impairment charges and Australian regulators imposed an additional AUD 100 million ($68.7 million) capital overlay on Macquarie.

UniCredit’s CET1 ratio rose to 15% ahead of its planned consolidation of Commerzbank, while China Lianhe placed Zhuhai Huafa and 46 bonds on negative watch. Elsewhere, Singapore eased a capital penalty on DBS, Senegal paid higher yields on five-year debt and the US Treasury changed its seven-year note issuance schedule. ASN Bank raised EUR 500 million ($558.3 million) through AT1 securities, while Serbia set a date for insured deposit payouts at Alta Banka.

Read more on the week’s key developments:

1. Paraguay reimburses 1.2 million depositors as political crisis deepens following bank failure

Paraguay’s central bank began paying out frozen Ueno Bank accounts on November 5 through partner financial institutions. By 7 November, interim central bank president Pedro Acosta reported that 1,196,000 depositors had recovered a combined PYG 996 billion (approx. $160 million). The regulatory action follows the 6 November unanimous impeachment and arrest of President Santiago Peña, who faces charges of breach of trust and influence peddling related to the placement of roughly $850 million in state and pension funds into Ueno Bank. Regulators had ordered Ueno into resolution on 2 November after accounting adjustments dropped its solvency ratio to less than half the legal minimum.

Initial payments cleared balances under PYG 10 million ($1,585), followed by advance distributions of up to PYG 121.76 million ($19,298) against a statutory guarantee cap of PYG 228.3 million ($36,184) per depositor. On November 6, Paraguay’s social security agency, the Instituto de Previsión Social (IPS), formally filed for preferred-creditor status to recover un-guaranteed balances. While newly sworn-in President Pedro Alliana has promised full compensation to address public protests in Asunción, the recovery of the social security fund's broader exposure depends on the eventual liquidation value of Ueno's assets.

2. China Lianhe puts Zhuhai Huafa and 46 bonds on negative watch

China Lianhe Credit Rating placed Zhuhai Huafa Group and 46 outstanding bonds on negative watch while affirming their domestic AAA ratings. The municipally owned group reported a nine-month pre-tax loss of RMB 7.7 billion ($1.2 billion) and operating cash outflow of RMB 1.5 billion ($224.8 million). The agency said cash holdings provided weak cover for debt due within a year.

Huafa’s liabilities represented 75.36% of assets, while inventory and investment property accounted for more than 45% of its balance sheet. Slow property sales and pledged assets limit the cash available for repayment, leaving the group increasingly dependent on external support. A RMB 1 billion ($149.9 million) note due on 17 November presents an immediate refinancing test despite the unchanged AAA rating.

3. NAB’s credit impairment charges jump 86% as ANZ mortgage arrears rise

National Australia Bank (NAB) disclosed an 86% rise in its annual credit impairment charge to AUD 1.55 billion ($1.06 billion) on 5 November. Individually assessed charges accounted for 70% of the total, mainly on business lending. NAB also added AUD 403 million ($276.9 million) to forward-looking provisions. On 9 November, ANZ reported that Australian mortgage arrears of at least 90 days rose 12 basis points over six months to 0.95%.

NAB’s AUD 1.08 billion individually assessed charges, largely against business borrowers, indicate borrower-specific deterioration; a further AUD 403 million in forward-looking provisions reflects downside risk. At ANZ, rising mortgage arrears have yet to produce equivalent losses: its annual individual provision loss rate was four basis points, non-performing exposures were 0.57% and second-half Australian mortgage individual provisions were AUD 8 million, supported by collateral.

4. APRA imposes additional $68.7 million capital overlay on Macquarie

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) said Macquarie Group had understated the capital required for its non-bank businesses, breaching a condition of its holding-company authorisation. The error dated back to 2019. Macquarie corrected the calculation and a new AUD 100 million ($68.7 million) governance overlay was put in place. An existing AUD 500 million ($343.5 million) overlay applies separately to Macquarie Bank.

Macquarie corrected the non-bank capital calculation, but APRA imposed an additional AUD 100 million governance overlay because the error persisted from 2019. The charge is separate from the existing AUD 500 million overlay on Macquarie Bank. APRA found no threat to group stability but may require further changes after reviewing the economic capital model; it must approve removal of either overlay.

5. UniCredit lifts CET1 ratio to 15% ahead of Commerzbank consolidation

UniCredit reported on 9 November that its common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio rose from 14.3% in June to 15.0% in September. Third-quarter organic capital generation added 92 basis points, while the Danish Compromise capital treatment contributed 53 basis points and accrued shareholder distributions absorbed 84 basis points. For the first nine months, the bank generated EUR 8.2 billion ($9.2 billion) in organic capital against EUR 7.3 billion ($8.2 billion) in accrued distributions. Its board also approved a EUR 4.5 billion ($5.0 billion) interim dividend.

The capital increase was not driven solely by retained earnings, with a further 19-basis-point benefit coming from the reversal of a temporary increase in risk-weighted assets. UniCredit expects its CET1 ratio to be at least 13% when it fully consolidates Commerzbank, before purchase-price allocation effects and subject to outstanding approvals. The enlarged balance sheet will therefore change the group's capital position, with acquisition accounting and consolidated risk-weighted assets determining its subsequent capacity for lending and shareholder distributions.

6. MAS eases DBS capital penalty after improvements in digital banking reliability

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) reduced the operational-risk multiplier it had imposed on DBS after digital banking disruptions. DBS said MAS recognised improvements in service availability, reliability and disruption response. Applied to the bank’s 30 September balance sheet, the decision would have raised its reported common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio from 15.9% to 16.1%. On a fully phased-in Basel III basis, the ratio would have risen from 14.0% to 14.1%.

The reduced multiplier cuts DBS’s operational-risk-weighted assets without adding equity, giving it more regulatory capital headroom. However, a multiplier of 1.5 still exceeds the standard calculation, and the reported CET1 improvement is a pro forma application to the 30 September balance sheet, not new capital raised. Further relief remains subject to MAS’s assessment of service reliability and incident response.

7. Senegal raises $145.7 million as five-year bond yields climb

Senegal accepted CFA 85.6 billion ($145.7 million) of regional Treasury bids on 6 November. UMOA-Titres reported a five-year weighted average yield of 8.42%, up from 8.24% at the 23 October auction. The three-year yield moved the other way, falling from 8.01% to 7.31%. The 364-day bills yielded 8.03%. Bids submitted outside Senegal accounted for about 56% of the amount accepted across the three maturities.

Having excluded regional CFA-franc borrowing from its September debt-treatment plan, Senegal preserved its access to regional markets, though repayment risks remain for holding banks. Because the five-year yield rose by 18 basis points while the three-year yield fell by 70 basis points, the auction highlights a mixed risk outlook rather than a uniform repricing of sovereign risk. External regional demand remains critical for Senegal's refinancing needs.

8. US Treasury moves to quarterly issuance of new seven-year notes

The US Treasury announced that, from March 2027, it will introduce one new seven-year note each quarter and sell more of the same security at the next two monthly auctions. It currently introduces a distinct note each month. The quarterly refunding statement also set out a $125 billion sale of three-, 10- and 30-year securities, of which about $28 billion represents new cash from private investors.

The change consolidates otherwise separate monthly seven-year notes into larger issues without reducing the frequency of auctions. More concentrated lines could improve secondary-market depth and make particular securities easier for primary dealers to source as repo collateral. Any improvement remains prospective until reflected in trading spreads and repo pricing.

9. ASN Bank raises $558.3 million in AT1 securities at 7%

ASN Bank priced EUR 500 million ($558.3 million) of perpetual additional tier 1 (AT1) securities at a 7% coupon until the first reset in November 2032. Investor orders exceeded 3.6 times the offer. Settlement is scheduled for 12 November. The Dutch lender said the issue supports its leverage ratio and its minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities, the resources available to absorb losses in resolution.

The issue gives ASN flexibility to redeem an existing EUR 300 million ($335 million) AT1 instrument, subject to supervisory approval. Full redemption would add a net EUR 200 million ($223.3 million) to outstanding AT1 rather than EUR 500 million, before transaction costs. The final increase in loss-absorbing funding therefore depends on whether the older security is called.

10. Serbia sets 13 November start for Alta Banka deposit reimbursements

Serbia’s Deposit Insurance Agency selected Banka Poštanska Štedionica to pay Alta Banka’s insured depositors from 13 November, following the 30 October licence withdrawal and bankruptcy proceedings opened on 3 November. Coverage is capped at EUR 50,000 ($55,825) for each eligible depositor, including individuals, entrepreneurs and qualifying micro, small and medium-sized businesses. Dinar deposits will be paid in dinars and foreign-currency deposits in euros.

The payout date restores a route to insured cash, but balances above EUR 50,000 remain claims on the bankrupt estate. Serbia’s central bank separately instructed borrowers to continue repaying their loans, protecting collections that can support creditor recoveries. The underlying closure predates this reporting window; the new development is the confirmed reimbursement timetable.

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