Themed “Reshaping the Global Order, Accelerating Intelligent Finance,” the 2025 The Asian Banker Future of Finance China Summit, organised by TAB Global, brought together economists, trade experts, and financial thought leaders to examine how global economic disruption, rising protectionism and the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) are reshaping the financial sector and China’s growth trajectory. The keynote addresses were delivered by Robert Koopman, professor at the School of International Service at American University and former chief economist of the World Trade Organization (WTO); Sabino Fornies Martinez, minister counsellor and head of trade section at the Delegation of the European Union (EU) to China; Sheng Songcheng, professor at China Europe International Business School (CEIBS) and director of the Research Institute of China Chief Economists Forum; Zhang Liqing, former dean of the School of Finance at the Central University of Finance and Economics and director of its Centre for International Finance Studies; and He Ping, associate dean at the School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua University. Imbalances, industrial policy and the end of WTO consensus Opening the summit, Koopman addressed the underlying shifts in global economic integration, trade fragmentation, and the erosion of multilateral consensus. He warned that “the system of global trade governance under the WTO is facing unprecedented stress,” describing a world where trade relationships are being restructured by strategic concerns and political expediency rather than efficiency or comparative advantage. “Global value chains are shortening,” he said, noting the retreat from hyper-globalisation. “But this doesn’t necessarily mean deglobalisation—it’s a reconfiguration.” Koopman highlighted that many countries now pursue "WTO minus one" strategies—preferential agreements that bypass multilateral rules to serve national priorities. “We're seeing a rise in industrial policies and subsidies, not as exceptions, but as core instruments,” he stated. He argued that trade imbalances should no longer be addressed through tariffs or protectionist measures. “They are better resolved through domestic fiscal adjustments and investment policies, particularly in the Global South.” Koopman pointed to the United States (US) and China, urging both to “rethink internal policies on investment and consumption rather than retaliate through trade.” He also warned that overuse of tariffs, as seen in US trade policy, leads to global inefficiencies and weaker supply chain resilience. “Trade policy is a blunt tool. What the world needs now is more agile fiscal governance and cross-border coordination,” he said. While globalisation is under strain, Koopman stressed that countries like China still play a critical role in shaping its next chapter. Building bridges amid fragmentation Martinez followed with a European perspective, asserting that despite growing protectionist undercurrents, the EU remains committed to a rules-based global trading system. “Yes, there is fragmentation, but fragmentation does not necessarily mean isolation,” he said. “Engagement is still possible—and necessary—provided it is based on transparency and fairness.” Martinez advocated for deepened EU-China cooperation, especially in green finance and sustainable capital markets. “There is a natural synergy,” he argued. “Chinese capital and European transition goals can meet meaningfully, if the conditions of trust are present.” He acknowledged that divergence in standards and governance exists but should not preclude pragmatic engagement. “We need to continue talking, building trust,” Martinez said. “There is much to gain if we agree to play by the same rules.” Stimulating service consumption and rebalancing income In his keynote, Sheng focused on the domestic economy, highlighting the untapped potential of China’s service consumption. “China has a large market, but service consumption still accounts for a relatively low share of gross domestic product (GDP) compared to advanced economies,” he said. He identified the key barriers as “weak demand and insufficient supply,” noting that many households lack the confidence or income to spend. Sheng called for structural measures to stimulate consumption, including “raising disposable income, particularly among low and middle-income households, and improving the supply of quality services.” He advocated a gradual shift in tax policy to support this objective: “China must increase the proportion of direct taxation, especially on higher-income groups, to free up capacity for redistributive fiscal policy.” Sheng concluded that consumption, not investment, must become the new anchor of China’s economic resilience. The twin imperatives: structural reform and internationalisation Zhang turned attention to the broader global headwinds and how China must navigate them. He echoed Koopman’s concerns about the long-term impact of trade tensions and the retreat of globalisation: “The era of global trade expansion is facing structural constraints. The US-China trade war is not a short-term phenomenon—it signals a broader shift.” Zhang outlined two strategic imperatives for China: deepening structural reform and expanding its international reach. He emphasised the need for public investment to address domestic infrastructure bottlenecks and inequality, while at the same time advancing new market strategies: “We must diversify, engage more with ASEAN, Africa and the Global South. That also means internationalising the renminbi in a more deliberate and credible manner.” He called for a rules-based approach to global economic governance, one that includes greater participation from emerging economies. “China has to lead not only by scale but by contributing to a new architecture of global economic governance,” Zhang said. Competing through value, not cost He concluded the keynote segment with an examination of how China can upgrade its role in global value chains. He argued that China’s path forward lies not in labour cost advantages but in technology, innovation, and strategic openness. “We’re witnessing a global reordering of industrial chains,” he noted. “China must compete through capability, not just efficiency.” He stressed the importance of climbing the value chain and leveraging trade corridors such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and South-South partnerships. “These are not just geopolitical tools—they are economic engines,” he said. The internationalisation of the renminbi (RMB), in his view, should support—not precede—China’s move into higher-value trade and investment flows. “We don’t internationalise the currency for prestige. We do it to facilitate deeper integration,” he stated. Leadership dialogue: balancing sovereignty with openness Following the keynote addresses, Koopman, Martinez, Zhang and He joined TAB Global founder and chairman Emmanuel Daniel and University of International Business and Economics professor John Gong in a leadership dialogue on “Responding to Global Trade Shocks: Rethinking China’s Growth Path.” Koopman argued that the key challenge today is finding a balance between national sovereignty and global openness. “You cannot isolate and expect resilience. But blind openness without trust mechanisms won’t work either,” he said. He warned against overcorrecting with trade barriers, noting that “supply chains work best when they are flexible and rule-based.” Martinez reiterated the EU’s stance that openness must be reciprocal and rules-based. “The green transition is our north star, and China can be a partner in that journey. But it requires clear standards and regulatory trust,” he said. Zhang added that China must shift from a reactive to a proactive strategy. “We need to shape the global agenda rather than just respond to it,” he said. He advocated for institutional openness—greater transparency, data flows, and legal compatibility with trading partners. He closed the discussion by calling for a pragmatic approach to industrial policy and regional integration: “The world is not flat, but it is connected. China’s challenge is not to dominate supply chains but to strengthen them.” Together, the panellists agreed that the future lies in a hybrid global economy—neither entirely decoupled nor blindly integrated. For China, the way forward is clear: structural reform at home, strategic openness abroad, and a clear commitment to rebuilding the trust essential to sustainable global growth.
