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Recalibrating trade, industrial policy and financial systems in a fragmented world

In his keynote at the 2025 The Asian Banker Future of Finance China Summit, held on 26 June in Beijing, Robert Koopman— former Chief Economist of the World Trade Organization and Hurst Senior Professorial Lecturer at American University— discussed the structural shifts reshaping global trade and finance.

Speaking under the event theme “Reshaping the Global Order, Accelerating Intelligent Finance,” Koopman warned that the global economic system is entering a new era marked by fragmentation, geopolitical uncertainty and rising policy divergence. Citing research from the forthcoming Global Value Chain Development Report 2025, he highlighted how over 300 million firms connected to 13 billion supply chain links are increasingly exposed to unpredictable trade policies and systemic shocks.

Koopman argued that although global trade volumes have remained resilient, the emergence of fragmented trading blocs and unpredictable tariff regimes is eroding long-term efficiency and development. He highlighted China’s accelerating trade diversification, digital transformation and industrial upgrading as strategic responses to these pressures.

He cautioned that industrial policy is once again becoming a central instrument for guiding economic strategy, with significant implications for the global trading system. Koopman emphasised that financial systems are already absorbing these shocks, as uncertainty fuels shifts in capital flows, debt dynamics and currency expectations.

To maintain global resilience, Koopman called for renewed international cooperation in critical areas such as trade finance, digital governance, and subsidy standards. He concluded by urging reforms to multilateral institutions—particularly the World Trade Organization— to better reflect the realities of a more fragmented yet deeply interdependent global economy.